Browse select publications produced by Icelabbers on this page by year or tag using the filters below, or type in an author name to search for publications by that author.
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Rocklov, J; Sjodin, H High population densities catalyse the spread of COVID-19 Journal Article J Travel Med, 27 (3), 2020, ISSN: 1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking). Rocklov, J; Sjodin, H; Wilder-Smith, A COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures Journal Article J Travel Med, 27 (3), 2020, ISSN: 1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking). Liu, Y; Gayle, A A; Wilder-Smith, A; Rocklov, J The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus Journal Article J Travel Med, 27 (2), 2020, ISSN: 1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking). Liu, Y; Lillepold, K; Semenza, J C; Tozan, Y; Quam, M B M; Rocklov, J Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones Journal Article Environ Res, 182 , pp. 109114, 2020, ISSN: 1096-0953 (Electronic)
0013-9351 (Linking). Calatayud, Joaquín; Andivia, Enrique; Escuderoa, Adrián; Melián, Carlos J; Bernardo-Madrid, Rubén; Stoffel, Markus; Aponte, Cristina; Medina, Nagore G; Molina-Venegas, Rafael; Arnan, Xavier; Rosvall, Martin; Neuman, Magnus; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Alves-Martins, Fernanda; Draper, Isabel; Luzuriaga, Arantzazu; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Morales-Molino, César; Ferrandis, Pablo; Herrero, Asier; Pataro, Luciano; Juen, Leandro; Cea, Alex; Madrigal-González, Jaime Positive associations among rare species and their persistence in ecological assemblages Journal Article Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4 , pp. 40-45, 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Calatayud, Rosvall Calatayud, Joaquín; Bernardo-Madrid, Rubén; Neuman, Magnus; Rojas, Alexis; Rosvall, Martin Exploring the solution landscape enables more reliable network community detection Journal Article Phys. Rev. E, 100 , pp. 052308, 2019. Berdahl, Andrew; Brelsford, Christa; Bacco, Caterina De; Dumas, Marion; Ferdinand, Vanessa; Grochow, Joshua A; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Kallus, Yoav; Kempes, Christopher P; Kolchinsky, Artemy; Larremore, Daniel B; Libby, Eric; Power, Eleanor A; Stern, Caitlin A; Tracey, Brendan D Dynamics of beneficial epidemics Journal Article Scientific Reports, 9 (1), pp. 15093, 2019, ISSN: 2045-2322. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Hajdu, László; Bóta, András; Krész, Miklós; Khani, Alireza; Gardner, Lauren M Discovering the Hidden Community Structure of Public Transportation Networks Journal Article Networks and Spatial Economics, 2019, ISSN: 1572-9427. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Wickman, Jonas; Diehl, Sebastian; Brännström, Åke Evolution of resource specialisation in competitive metacommunities Journal Article Ecology Letters, 0 (0), 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Adaptive dynamics, Brännström, coexistence, consumer–resource interactions, Diehl, ESS, spatial models, Wickman Libby, Eric Modularity of the life cycle Journal Article Nature Ecology & Evolution, 3 (8), pp. 1142-1143, 2019, ISSN: 2397-334X. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Yeonghoon; Lee, Sungmin; Durang, Xavier; Stenberg, Per; Jeon, Jae-Hyung; Lizana, Ludvig Mapping the spectrum of 3D communities in human chromosome conformation capture data Journal Article Scientific Reports, 9 , 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lizana Durang, Xavier; Lee, Sungmin; Lizana, Ludvig; Jeon, Jae-Hyung First-passage statistics under stochastic resetting in bounded domains Journal Article Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 52 (22), pp. 224001, 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lambiotte, Renaud; Rosvall, Martin; Scholtes, Ingo From networks to optimal higher-order models of complex systems Journal Article Nature Physics, 15 (4), pp. 313-320, 2019, ISSN: 1745-2481. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Sobhy, Haitham; Kumar, Rajendra; Lewerentz, Jacob; Lizana, Ludvig; Stenberg, Per Highly interacting regions of the human genome are enriched with enhancers and bound by DNA repair proteins Journal Article Scientific Reports, 9 , 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lizana Kumar, Rajendra; Lizana, Ludvig; Stenberg, Per Genomic 3D compartments emerge from unfolding mitotic chromosomes Journal Article Chromosoma, 128 , pp. 15-20, 2019, ISSN: 1432-0886. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lizana Lundström, Niklas LP; Loeuille, Nicolas; Meng, Xinzhu; Bodin, Mats; Brännström, Åke Meeting yield and conservation objectives by balancing harvesting of juveniles and adults Journal Article arXiv preprint arXiv:1712.10184, 2019. BibTeX | Tags: Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Sewe, Maquins; Rocklöv, Joacim; Brännström, Åke Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100 Journal Article Environmental Research, 172 , pp. 693-699, 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lind, Peter A; Libby, Eric; Herzog, Jenny; Rainey, Paul B Predicting mutational routes to new adaptive phenotypes Journal Article eLife, (38822), 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Libby Zaki, R; Roffeei, S N; Hii, Y L; Yahya, A; Appannan, M; Said, M A; Wan, N C; Aghamohammadi, N; Hairi, N N; Bulgiba, A; Quam, M; Rocklov, J Public perception and attitude towards dengue prevention activity and response to dengue early warning in Malaysia Journal Article PLoS One, 14 (2), pp. e0212497, 2019, ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic)
1932-6203 (Linking). Naslund, U; Ng, N; Lundgren, A; Fharm, E; Gronlund, C; Johansson, H; Lindahl, B; Lindahl, B; Lindvall, K; Nilsson, S K; Nordin, M; Nordin, S; Nyman, E; Rocklov, J; Vanoli, D; Weinehall, L; Wennberg, P; Wester, P; Norberg, M; trial, Vipviza Lancet, 393 (10167), pp. 133-142, 2019, ISSN: 1474-547X (Electronic)
0140-6736 (Linking).
title = {High population densities catalyse the spread of COVID-19},
author = {J Rocklov and H Sjodin},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32227186},
doi = {10.1093/jtm/taaa038},
issn = {1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking)},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {J Travel Med},
volume = {27},
number = {3},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures},
author = {J Rocklov and H Sjodin and A Wilder-Smith},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32109273},
doi = {10.1093/jtm/taaa030},
issn = {1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking)},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {J Travel Med},
volume = {27},
number = {3},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus},
author = {Y Liu and A A Gayle and A Wilder-Smith and J Rocklov},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32052846},
doi = {10.1093/jtm/taaa021},
issn = {1708-8305 (Electronic)
1195-1982 (Linking)},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {J Travel Med},
volume = {27},
number = {2},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones},
author = {Y Liu and K Lillepold and J C Semenza and Y Tozan and M B M Quam and J Rocklov},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31927301},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109114},
issn = {1096-0953 (Electronic)
0013-9351 (Linking)},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Environ Res},
volume = {182},
pages = {109114},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Positive associations among rare species and their persistence in ecological assemblages},
author = {Joaquín Calatayud and Enrique Andivia and Adrián Escuderoa and Carlos J. Melián and Rubén Bernardo-Madrid and Markus Stoffel and Cristina Aponte and Nagore G. Medina and Rafael Molina-Venegas and Xavier Arnan and Martin Rosvall and Magnus Neuman and Jorge Ari Noriega and Fernanda Alves-Martins and Isabel Draper and Arantzazu Luzuriaga and Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and César Morales-Molino and Pablo Ferrandis and Asier Herrero and Luciano Pataro and Leandro Juen and Alex Cea and Jaime Madrigal-González },
doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-1053-5},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-12-16},
journal = {Nature Ecology and Evolution},
volume = {4},
pages = {40-45},
abstract = {According to the competitive exclusion principle, species with low competitive abilities should be excluded by more efficient competitors; yet, they generally remain as rare species. Here, we describe the positive and negative spatial association networks of 326 disparate assemblages, showing a general organization pattern that simultaneously supports the primacy of competition and the persistence of rare species. Abundant species monopolize negative associations in about 90% of the assemblages. On the other hand, rare species are mostly involved in positive associations, forming small network modules. Simulations suggest that positive interactions among rare species and microhabitat preferences are the most probable mechanisms underpinning this pattern and rare species persistence. The consistent results across taxa and geography suggest a general explanation for the maintenance of biodiversity in competitive environments.},
keywords = {Calatayud, Rosvall},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Exploring the solution landscape enables more reliable network community detection},
author = {Joaquín Calatayud and Rubén Bernardo-Madrid and Magnus Neuman and Alexis Rojas and Martin Rosvall},
url = {https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.100.052308},
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.100.052308},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-11-01},
journal = {Phys. Rev. E},
volume = {100},
pages = {052308},
publisher = {American Physical Society},
keywords = {Rojas},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Dynamics of beneficial epidemics},
author = {Andrew Berdahl and Christa Brelsford and Caterina De Bacco and Marion Dumas and Vanessa Ferdinand and Joshua A Grochow and Laurent Hébert-Dufresne and Yoav Kallus and Christopher P Kempes and Artemy Kolchinsky and Daniel B Larremore and Eric Libby and Eleanor A Power and Caitlin A Stern and Brendan D Tracey},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50039-w},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-50039-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-10-22},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
pages = {15093},
abstract = {Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using a breadth-first modeling approach involving three distinct theoretical models. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Discovering the Hidden Community Structure of Public Transportation Networks},
author = {László Hajdu and András Bóta and Miklós Krész and Alireza Khani and Lauren M Gardner},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-019-09476-3},
doi = {10.1007/s11067-019-09476-3},
issn = {1572-9427},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-08-20},
journal = {Networks and Spatial Economics},
abstract = {Advances in public transit modeling and smart card technologies can reveal detailed contact patterns of passengers. A natural way to represent such contact patterns is in the form of networks. In this paper we utilize known contact patterns from a public transit assignment model in a major metropolitan city, and propose the development of two novel network structures, each of which elucidate certain aspects of passenger travel behavior. We first propose the development of a transfer network, which can reveal passenger groups that travel together on a given day. Second, we propose the development of a community network, which is derived from the transfer network, and captures the similarity of travel patterns among passengers. We then explore the application of each of these network structures to identify the most frequently used travel paths, i.e., routes and transfers, in the public transit system, and model epidemic spreading risk among passengers of a public transit network, respectively. In the latter our conclusions reinforce previous observations, that routes crossing or connecting to the city center in the morning and afternoon peak hours are the most ``dangerous'' during an outbreak.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Evolution of resource specialisation in competitive metacommunities},
author = {Jonas Wickman and Sebastian Diehl and Åke Brännström},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.13338},
doi = {10.1111/ele.13338},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-08-07},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {0},
number = {0},
abstract = {Abstract Spatial environmental heterogeneity coupled with dispersal can promote ecological persistence of diverse metacommunities. Does this premise hold when metacommunities evolve? Using a two-resource competition model, we studied the evolution of resource-uptake specialisation as a function of resource type (substitutable to essential) and shape of the trade-off between resource uptake affinities (generalist- to specialist-favouring). In spatially homogeneous environments, evolutionarily stable coexistence of consumers is only possible for sufficiently substitutable resources and specialist-favouring trade-offs. Remarkably, these same conditions yield comparatively low diversity in heterogeneous environments, because they promote sympatric evolution of two opposite resource specialists that, together, monopolise the two resources everywhere. Consumer diversity is instead maximised for intermediate trade-offs and clearly substitutable or clearly essential resources, where evolved metacommunities are characterised by contrasting selection regimes. Taken together, our results present new insights into resource-competition-mediated evolutionarily stable diversity in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments, which should be applicable to a wide range of systems.},
keywords = {Adaptive dynamics, Brännström, coexistence, consumer–resource interactions, Diehl, ESS, spatial models, Wickman},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Modularity of the life cycle},
author = {Eric Libby},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0956-5},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0956-5},
issn = {2397-334X},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-08-01},
journal = {Nature Ecology & Evolution},
volume = {3},
number = {8},
pages = {1142-1143},
abstract = {Life stages in Bacillus subtilis are controlled by regulatory blocks that can be kept or lost across species in response to selection in different environments.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Mapping the spectrum of 3D communities in human chromosome conformation capture data},
author = {Sang Hoon Lee and Yeonghoon Kim and Sungmin Lee and Xavier Durang and Per Stenberg and Jae-Hyung Jeon and Ludvig Lizana},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42212-y},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-05-02},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {9},
abstract = {Several experiments show that the three dimensional (3D) organization of chromosomes affects genetic processes such as transcription and gene regulation. To better understand this connection, researchers developed the Hi-C method that is able to detect the pairwise physical contacts of all chromosomal loci. The Hi-C data shows that chromosomes are composed of 3D compartments that range over a variety of scales. However, it is challenging to systematically detect these cross-scale structures. Most studies have therefore designed methods for specific scales to study foremost topologically associated domains (TADs) and A/B compartments. To go beyond this limitation, we tailor a network community detection method that finds communities in compact fractal globule polymer systems. Our method allows us to continuously scan through all scales with a single resolution parameter. We found: (i) polymer segments belonging to the same 3D community do not have to be in consecutive order along the polymer chain. In other words, several TADs may belong to the same 3D community. (ii) CTCF proteins---a loop-stabilizing protein that is ascribed a big role in TAD formation---are correlated well with community borders only at one level of organization. (iii) TADs and A/B compartments are traditionally treated as two weakly related 3D structures and detected with different algorithms. With our method, we detect both by simply adjusting the resolution parameter. We therefore argue that they represent two specific levels of a continuous spectrum 3D communities, rather than seeing them as different structural entities.},
keywords = {Lizana},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {First-passage statistics under stochastic resetting in bounded domains},
author = {Xavier Durang and Sungmin Lee and Ludvig Lizana and Jae-Hyung Jeon},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088%2F1751-8121%2Fab15f5},
doi = {10.1088/1751-8121/ab15f5},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-04-01},
journal = {Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical},
volume = {52},
number = {22},
pages = {224001},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
abstract = {We investigate the first-passage problem where a diffusive searcher stochastically resets to a fixed position at a constant rate in a bounded domain. We put forward an analytical framework for this problem where the resetting rate r, the resetting position x
r
, the initial position x
0, the domain size L, and the particle’s diffusion constant D are independent variables. From this we obtain analytical expressions for the mean-first passage time, survival probability and the first-passage time density in Laplace space in terms of the above independent variables, and closed forms in time-domain expression in some cases. For the first-passage time distributions their full-time profiles in time-domain are numerically obtained and validated by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that for the general resetting condition the first-passage process has rich nontrivial features as it combines effects from resetting and the finiteness of the domain. A phase diagram showing the regions for resetting-enhanced and -suppressed first-passages is obtained analytically. Counter-intuitively, resetting facilitates the first-passage event even if the particle resets to a position that is further away from the target than where it started. Finally, we show that averaging over resetting positions, resetting never helps the search compared to a random search, unless the resetting position is displaced from the initial position.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
r
, the initial position x
0, the domain size L, and the particle’s diffusion constant D are independent variables. From this we obtain analytical expressions for the mean-first passage time, survival probability and the first-passage time density in Laplace space in terms of the above independent variables, and closed forms in time-domain expression in some cases. For the first-passage time distributions their full-time profiles in time-domain are numerically obtained and validated by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that for the general resetting condition the first-passage process has rich nontrivial features as it combines effects from resetting and the finiteness of the domain. A phase diagram showing the regions for resetting-enhanced and -suppressed first-passages is obtained analytically. Counter-intuitively, resetting facilitates the first-passage event even if the particle resets to a position that is further away from the target than where it started. Finally, we show that averaging over resetting positions, resetting never helps the search compared to a random search, unless the resetting position is displaced from the initial position.
title = {From networks to optimal higher-order models of complex systems},
author = {Renaud Lambiotte and Martin Rosvall and Ingo Scholtes},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-019-0459-y},
doi = {10.1038/s41567-019-0459-y},
issn = {1745-2481},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-04-01},
journal = {Nature Physics},
volume = {15},
number = {4},
pages = {313-320},
abstract = {Rich data are revealing that complex dependencies between the nodes of a network may not be captured by models based on pairwise interactions. Higher-order network models go beyond these limitations, offering new perspectives for understanding complex systems.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Highly interacting regions of the human genome are enriched with enhancers and bound by DNA repair proteins},
author = {Haitham Sobhy and Rajendra Kumar and Jacob Lewerentz and Ludvig Lizana and Per Stenberg},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40770-9},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40770-9},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-03-14},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {9},
abstract = {In specific cases, chromatin clearly forms long-range loops that place distant regulatory elements in close proximity to transcription start sites, but we have limited understanding of many loops identified by Chromosome Conformation Capture (such as Hi-C) analyses. In efforts to elucidate their characteristics and functions, we have identified highly interacting regions (HIRs) using intra-chromosomal Hi-C datasets with a new computational method based on looking at the eigenvector that corresponds to the smallest eigenvalue (here unity). Analysis of these regions using ENCODE data shows that they are in general enriched in bound factors involved in DNA damage repair and have actively transcribed genes. However, both highly transcribed regions as well as transcriptionally inactive regions can form HIRs. The results also indicate that enhancers and super-enhancers in particular form long-range interactions within the same chromosome. The accumulation of DNA repair factors in most identified HIRs suggests that protection from DNA damage in these regions is essential for avoidance of detrimental rearrangements.},
keywords = {Lizana},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Genomic 3D compartments emerge from unfolding mitotic chromosomes},
author = {Rajendra Kumar and Ludvig Lizana and Per Stenberg},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00412-018-0684-7},
doi = {10.1007/s00412-018-0684-7},
issn = {1432-0886},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-03-01},
journal = {Chromosoma},
volume = {128},
pages = {15-20},
abstract = {The 3D organisation of the genome in interphase cells is not a randomly folded polymer. Rather, experiments show that chromosomes arrange into a network of 3D compartments that correlate with biological processes, such as transcription, chromatin modifications and protein binding. However, these compartments do not exist during cell division when the DNA is condensed, and it is unclear how and when they emerge. In this paper, we focus on the early stages after cell division as the chromosomes start to decondense. We use a simple polymer model to understand the types of 3D structures that emerge from local unfolding of a compact initial state. From simulations, we recover 3D compartments, such as TADs and A/B compartments that are consistently detected in chromosome capture experiments across cell types and organisms. This suggests that the large-scale 3D organisation is a result of an inflation process.},
keywords = {Lizana},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Meeting yield and conservation objectives by balancing harvesting of juveniles and adults},
author = {Niklas LP Lundström and Nicolas Loeuille and Xinzhu Meng and Mats Bodin and Åke Brännström},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-02-25},
journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1712.10184},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100},
author = {Jing Liu-Helmersson and Maquins Sewe and Joacim Rocklöv and Åke Brännström},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-02-16},
journal = {Environmental Research},
volume = {172},
pages = {693-699},
abstract = {Background: Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.
Objective: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.
Methods: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).
Results: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.
Conclusion: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Objective: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.
Methods: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).
Results: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.
Conclusion: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.
title = {Predicting mutational routes to new adaptive phenotypes},
author = {Peter A Lind and Eric Libby and Jenny Herzog and Paul B Rainey},
url = {https://elifesciences.org/articles/38822},
doi = {10.7554/eLife.38822},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-08},
journal = {eLife},
number = {38822},
abstract = {Predicting evolutionary change poses numerous challenges. Here we take advantage of the model bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens in which the genotype-to-phenotype map determining evolution of the adaptive ‘wrinkly spreader’ (WS) type is known. We present mathematical descriptions of three necessary regulatory pathways and use these to predict both the rate at which each mutational route is used and the expected mutational targets. To test predictions, mutation rates and targets were determined for each pathway. Unanticipated mutational hotspots caused experimental observations to depart from predictions but additional data led to refined models. A mismatch was observed between the spectra of WS-causing mutations obtained with and without selection due to low fitness of previously undetected WS-causing mutations. Our findings contribute toward the development of mechanistic models for forecasting evolution, highlight current limitations, and draw attention to challenges in predicting locus-specific mutational biases and fitness effects.},
keywords = {Libby},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Public perception and attitude towards dengue prevention activity and response to dengue early warning in Malaysia},
author = {R Zaki and S N Roffeei and Y L Hii and A Yahya and M Appannan and M A Said and N C Wan and N Aghamohammadi and N N Hairi and A Bulgiba and M Quam and J Rocklov},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30818394},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0212497},
issn = {1932-6203 (Electronic)
1932-6203 (Linking)},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {PLoS One},
volume = {14},
number = {2},
pages = {e0212497},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
title = {Visualization of asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease for optimum cardiovascular prevention (VIPVIZA): a pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial},
author = {U Naslund and N Ng and A Lundgren and E Fharm and C Gronlund and H Johansson and B Lindahl and B Lindahl and K Lindvall and S K Nilsson and M Nordin and S Nordin and E Nyman and J Rocklov and D Vanoli and L Weinehall and P Wennberg and P Wester and M Norberg and Vipviza trial},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30522919},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32818-6},
issn = {1474-547X (Electronic)
0140-6736 (Linking)},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Lancet},
volume = {393},
number = {10167},
pages = {133-142},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}